Iran War 2026-Analysis of Psychological Operations (Psy ops)

Introduction

The Iran war started on 28th February 2026, as US-Israeli joint attacks were launched with a powerful hope and unshakable assurance that the regime change in Iran would be a matter of a few hours. It was also assumed that the killing of top leadership would result in political disorder and administrative disruption in Iran. The void will soon be filled by the protestors to take charge. The incredible precision of US-Israeli attacks remained beyond any doubt as they succeeded in killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and other top leaders, but the attack stirred up a hornet's nest, provoking a strong reaction by Iran. AFP noted on (destruction of US warship Lincoln) that US allies are horrified; if America’s largest warship can’t even protect itself against Iran, no one can trust America’s support anymore. Iran calmly but boldly challenged the invincibility of the US and Israel. Trump and Israel, however, kept repeating the rhetorical statements that soon Iran would fall and that Iran should render unconditional surrender. This was nothing but psychological operations (Psy ops).

Psychological Operations Analysis

Psychological Operations Objectives:

1. Intimidation: Creating fear among Iranian Security Forces, making them believe that they can be targeted anytime with speed and agility. Hence, symbolically, the US & Israeli attacks were code-named as Op Epic Fury and Op Roaring Lion. The aim was to demoralize.

The Iranian government, security forces, and general public are suggesting that they have run out of options. Security forces and the people of Iran should turn against their government and save their lives.

2. Hacking Mobile Phones: This was aimed at disrupting Iran’s command structure and interrupting the decision-making process.

3. Propaganda: Using powerful propaganda to influence international public opinion against Iran for bad governance, coercive policies against the people of Iran, and causing political instability while mishandling external affairs.

4. Fissures of Division in Society: Create divisions within Iran and encourage internal unrest by providing support to the protesters.

5. Promote Regime Change & Mistrust: Promote the idea of regime change, create mistrust among security forces, and loss of hope among the people of Iran.

6. Boasting Invincibility: ⁠Boasting the invincibility of US-Israeli joint forces and projecting Iran’s military capability as too weak to fight against the overwhelming US-Israeli forces.

7. ⁠Cyber Warfare: Cyber warfare was used as an auxiliary to target Iran’s internal system to disrupt its strategies.

8. Specifically, the Psy Ops Targeted:

a. Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the initial strikes

b. IRGC commanders and military infrastructure

c. Nuclear facilities and missile sites

d. Propaganda and media outlets projected the conflict as a defensive measure against Iranian aggression.

d. Propaganda and Media Outlets

projected the narrative that Iran posed an imminent threat to US assets in the region as well as Israel. An attack on Iran has been launched as a preemptive strike. A powerful media campaign was launched to build international support for the US-Israeli actions.

Conduct of Iran War 2026:

a. Celebrating Initial Success.

US-Israeli joint military strikes were launched against the selected target with precision, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenaie, top Generals, and engaging missile sites and drones. The initial phase of the attack developed as planned. Trump and Netanyahu celebrated with loud applause. The world felt shocked, but Iran remained gracefully calm.

b. Illegal War.

Iran termed it an aggressive action lacking any justification. International media called it an illegal and unethical act of barbarism. It was graded as an illegal act of aggression due to the following reasons:

(1) Iran was negotiating with the US, under mediation of Oman, when suddenly US-Israeli planes started bombing Iran.

(2) The Omani Foreign Minister asserted that negotiations were going well and a deal was on the table in which Iran agreed to reduce the level of uranium enrichment on US terms.

(3) US-Israeli attacks on Iran violated the UNSC charter that no country will attack the sovereignty of another member state.

(4) Iran did not pose an imminent threat to both the US and Israel.

(5) Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon, and it was confirmed by the IAEA inspection report.

c. Miscalculation and Perceptual Error.

The US & Israel were quite comfortable in inflicting pain on Iran, but they were shocked to see Iranian retaliatory action. Iran engaged US military assets in the Gulf states and Israel’s military infrastructure with missiles, rockets, and drones, thereby challenging the invincibility of both the US and Israel. US-Israeli assessment of r. Iran’s military capability and national resolve were based on illusions and false perceptions.

Iran’s military preparations and war philosophy were totally ignored. Iran’s decentralisation, twenty years of preparation with contingency plans, and focus on survival rather than aiming at winning the war, was not considered. In addition, Iran’s traditional strategy and centuries-old civilisation with sound military history & doctrinal background were ignored.

d. Divergent Objectives. The conduct of war revealed that the US & Israel’s war objectives were divergent in the following ways: -

(1) The US wanted a short and limited war with quick results of regime change, destruction of Iran’s military infrastructure by rendering it incapable of fighting, destruction of missiles and drones’ capability, enhancing internal uprising against the Iranian government, and keeping the war controlled by not allowing it to spread in the entire region.

(2) Israel had plans to fight a prolonged war by spreading it to the entire region. Launching false flag operations and using regional countries as scapegoats. Strategic decisions to eliminate key Iranian personalities like Ali Larijani target the South Pars gas field and entice Iran to target the Qatari LNG facility. Thus, closing the options of de-escalation and enhancing tension.

In short, Israel wanted the conflict to continue.

e. Control of War.

It seems that the main controller of the Iran war-2026 is not Trump but Israel. Trump is mindful of the energy crises and hence had no intent to attack Iran’s gas fields, but as Trump appeared to have been inclined towards de-escalation, as construed by his decision to lower sanctions on the sale/purchase of Iran’s oil, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas facility. Resultantly, Iran reacted to the attack on the Qatari LNG plant. The tension escalated further. Similarly, Israel killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s chief negotiator, to reach a deal with the US on a reduced level of uranium enrichment. This was a big blow to any de-escalatory thought. It became evident that the control of war was in the hands of Netanyahu, and Trump was just following the instructions.

f. Economic Cost and Energy Crises. At the start of the war, economic cost and energy crises were not taken into consideration, and the war started while a nuclear deal was being negotiated. It seems that when Israel realised that a nuclear deal was on the table, they immediately went for the sudden attack. The aim was to launch a surprise attack (at any economic cost) to spoil or derail Iran’s nuclear deal.

Later events brought an exorbitant pressure on energy and oil supplies, resulting in an unimaginable cost of energy.

g. Closure of Strait of Hormuz.

(1) Trump Faced Failure in Diplomatic Front.

As Iran decided to close the Strait of Hormuz, the oil supply started worrying the world's consumers. Trump sought help from Western allies, Japan & China to open the Strait of Hormuz through military action, but his ordeal remained unresolved as they all looked the other way. Trump got frustrated, and his emotional outbursts failed to convince the Western allies and China to join in collective military action to open the Strait of Hormuz using force. This was a major blow to Trump at the diplomatic level.

(2) Iran’s New Conditions/Rules.

Iran also imposed new conditions for oil ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz only if they disconnected from the US alliance and made oil payments in Chinese currency in Yuan. This is a major blow to the US petrodollar mechanism. It was also Iran’s demand for the US to depart from the region.

(3) Trump Makes Clever Move. Trump not only showed his serious concerns about oil supply to the world consumers on the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz but also made a new diplomatic manoeuvre to outmatch the Iranian design. He convinced the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada to make an announcement (London) to take part in opening the Strait of Hormuz and to blame Iran for attacking its neighbors in the Gulf using UN resolution 2817.  Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, and Pakistan, also made anti Iran announcement (Riyadh) for attacking its neighboring countries. Unfortunately, in both London and Riyadh, no mention was made of the US-Israeli illegal and unethical attacks on Iran.

Conclusion. Iran still maintains that they aim to defend their sovereignty and take all possible measures to survive gracefully. No doubt Iranian losses are colossal, especially their top civil - military leadership, military infrastructure, oil refineries and gas plants, human and material loss, but they are still resilient and determined to defend their sovereignty. On the other hand, Netanyahu has gone out of sight. Iran claimed his death, while social media urges him to show his presence in public, but so far, he has not been available/seen. Trump seems over-exhausted, though he goes on with his rhetoric that all his objectives have been achieved except the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He further counted the losses incurred by Iran and urged all the users of the Strait of Hormuz to move forward and open it for their own benefit. He also stated his willingness to depart from fighting with Iran. The situation is still volatile, and uncertainty prevails in the region as well as among all peace-loving people of the world. Will Iran turn the tables and change the world order under the new leadership, or US Israeli influence succeed in their miscalculated venture to attack Iran?  UN and Ummah seem to have lost their credibility and identities. The real truth about Arab states’ sovereignty has been made naked to all and sundry. Moreover, Arab identity has been proven much stronger than the hollow rhetoric of Ummah. God bless Pakistan.